About the Atlas

Global Disruption Atlas

A disruption decision lab on a live globe. Real chokepoint and port data come in; out comes a costed answer to the question every supply chain leader faces after a disruption: what does it do to our network, and which protection is worth paying for?

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What it does

  • Watches live conditionsContainer-ship transits through 14 chokepoints from IMF PortWatch, refreshed daily, with natural-hazard alerts from GDACS and USGS, and port calls for 97 ports.
  • Replays real disruptionsThe Red Sea crisis, the Panama Canal drought, the Baltimore bridge collapse and others, or a disruption you describe in your own words.
  • Re-plans your networkLoad your own network from a spreadsheet or shipment history. Ships reroute along real sea lanes, the network is re-planned at least cost, and each distribution centre is scored on how long it can survive against how long recovery takes.
  • Prices flexibilityA Monte Carlo of a year of disruptions and an optimiser choose how much stock, contract cover and standby capacity to hold, so the cost of protection is weighed against the loss it prevents.
  • Reports the decisionA one-page steering-committee report, saved workspaces, and a daily brief of what changed on your routes.

How it is built

The Atlas runs entirely in your browser: networks you load never leave your computer. Its models are tested on every change, and twelve checks compare its results against what actually happened in past disruptions, recomputed from the live data.

It was built as the companion tool to the research Engineering Flexibility in Supply Chain Design, which asks how much flexibility a supply network should hold and what it is worth. A four-level tutorial inside the Atlas walks through it from a first replay to a quantified decision.

Author

The Global Disruption Atlas was designed and built by Daniel Alberto Sepulveda Estay, PhD, founder of Estay Dynamics. He works on system dynamics and network optimisation for supply chain resilience. He holds a PhD from the Technical University of Denmark and an MSc from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a council member of the System Dynamics Society.

More about Daniel →

To cite: Sepulveda Estay, D. A. (2026). Global Disruption Atlas (version 5.1.1) [Software]. Estay Dynamics. https://kathuman.github.io/estay-dynamics/atlas/

Your own network

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