Field notes / Ship cyber-risk model
Interactive model · Maritime cybersecurity

The attack-defence loop, live.

A five-stock system dynamics model of a cyber-physical ship ballast control system under attack — attacker foothold, perceived compromise, response capacity, ballast deviation, and containment effectiveness. Move the sliders and watch the network's own detection delay decide whether the attack is contained or the ballast system loses stability.

Read the paper on SSRN →
Fig. 01 — Model structure (5 stocks, 3 feedback loops)
τ_d + τ_m + B1 — response loop − R1 + activation + B3 — adaptation loop − φ tampering + B2 — recovery − A attacker foothold P perceived compromise R response capacity E containment effectiveness B ballast deviation

Amber marks the reinforcing loop (R1) — attacker propagation left unchecked. Cyan marks the response loop (B1) — perception, delayed by τ_d, mobilises response that contains the attacker. Purple marks the adaptation loop (B3) — sustained response gradually raises containment effectiveness. Ballast deviation (B, red) is the physical consequence: it has no feedback of its own, which is exactly why it can only be managed indirectly, through A and R.

Fraction of system state — foothold, perceived compromise, response

Attacker foothold A Perceived compromise P Response capacity R

Ballast water-level deviation vs. critical threshold

Ballast deviation B B_crit (stability loss)